Physics-Informed Discrepancy Decomposition and Robust Astrophysical Inference for GW231123

Abstract: Robust astrophysical interpretations from gravitational-wave parameter inference critically depend on understanding model-dependent biases. We introduce a novel physics-informed framework to systematically decompose and attribute discrepancies among five gravitational-wave waveform models (NRSur7dq4, IMRPhenomXO4a, SEOBNRv5PHM, IMRPhenomXPHM, IMRPhenomTPHM) for the GW231123 event. Our methodology involves extensive exploratory data analysis using Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Wasserstein distance, high-dimensional degeneracy analysis via Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP), and a core Physics-Informed Discrepancy Decomposition. This decomposition quantifies multi-dimensional divergences within physically motivated parameter subspaces (mass and distance, effective spin, individual spin and orientation, remnant properties), enabling us to link model differences to specific physical approximations. Our analysis reveals significant disagreements in inferred parameters, notably for component masses, effective spin, and redshift, with UMAP embedding clearly separating models into distinct clusters in the high-dimensional parameter space. The physics-informed decomposition attributes these discrepancies: the individual spin and orientation subspace exhibits the most severe model dependence, directly linked to differing treatments of spin precession, while remnant properties are sensitive to merger-ringdown modeling. Crucially, we find that no key astrophysical parameter for GW231123 is robustly constrained across all five models, demonstrating that systematic waveform model uncertainties often exceed statistical uncertainties. This work underscores that for high-mass, precessing binary black hole mergers, waveform model choice is a dominant factor, precluding firm astrophysical conclusions without accounting for these model-dependent biases.

Subjects:	astro-ph.CO; cs.LG
Cite as:	PX:2508.00012